Floods: Ways to Predict the Threat

During the last time, northern UK has suffering serious floods events in populated areas. Precipitation and other meteorological variables have reached historical values leading to huge problems for community. In this context, using modelling tools in order to understand and predict this natural process it is essential in order to anticipate future damages for population.

Hydrological modelling has been essential in this analysis. In effect, varied model approaches based on hydrological theory, such as fluid dynamics technics, have been used to simulate floods dynamics, its natural origins and also the effect of climate change on these events. 

Floods in Northern UK, 2015

In some places, floods can be strongly related with snow melt dynamics. Therefore, snowmelt models based on hydrological modelling principles have been widely developed in order to predict future disasters. In addition, some economic activities such as forest harvesting have also been recognized as a determining factor which could contribute to negative impacts in the natural runoff patterns. 

An interesting study partly funded by the Provincial Government of Salzburg was carried out in the Alpine basins. According with the nature of floods events in that area, the researchers included the snowmelt dynamics in a novel real-time flood forecasting. In the Alpine, the snow melt has been relevant in runoff processes and flood events. Thus, building and calibrating a model considering suitably this process, it was fundamental to create an efficient flood forecasting tool.

The model, which was calibrated with monitoring data of precipitation and temperature for the period 1999 – 2005, it was applied on the Salzach watershed. Due to the modelled area has a surface of 600 km², this was divided in 10 sub-basins.

According to the outcomes, even though the model shows some limitations in the snow depth and snow cover simulations, the runoff seasonal behaviour was represented with a significant accuracy. The Figure below presents the modelled runoff in comparison with the observed data for 2004 and 2005.

Runoff Estimation: Ovserved v/s Simulated  

This study case shows a significant contribution due to the ability to predict a natural hazard. In cases such as in the UK, where precipitation is playing a fundamental role in these natural events, using hydrological models including local precipitation dynamics represents a relevant tool for risk management. Therefore, a great challenge of environmental modelling facing the climate change, it is not only the understanding and prediction of this hugely complex phenomenon but also to join this effort with other fundamental disciplines for population welfare, such as urban planning and natural risk-hazard management.